A new top secret CIA study has concluded that the ongoing troubles in Iraq may * lead to a civil war by the end of next year*. The warning comes in a classified National Intelligence Estimate that was approved by acting CIA director John McLaughlin in July before the recent upsurge in violence. The New York Times revealed the existence of the report today. One government official who saw the classified report said “There’s a significant amount of pessimism.” The government is predicting the worst case scenario foresees developments that could lead to civil war, the most favorable scenario predicts a tenuous stability in political, economic and security terms. The Times notes that the tone of the report stands in direct contrast to recent statements by the Bush administration.